Orbits: Waiting For Godot!
The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) warned Sudan and South Sudan to end the fighting and reach an agreement to split the oil revenues within three months or face possible economic and diplomatic sanctions.
Sudan expressed hopes that South Sudan will respond positively to the African Union (AU) and United Nations (UN) calls to establish peace between the warring nations and steer clear of likely sanctions.
Sudan confirmed that it will cooperate with the AU roadmap led by Thabo Mbeki, the former South African president.
The government of Sudan confirms her own strategic calls to have peace between the two states and it hopes the government of South Sudan will give a positive reaction to the African and UN Security Council resolutions.
South Sudan had earlier offered its solemn commitment to follow the resolution.
However, South Sudan way in welcoming the controversial UNSC resolution indicates that its officials have no doubt that the resolution will serve their interests considering that their allies in the UNSC cooked the draft resolution in their favour.
Notwithstanding, there are some issues which South Sudan did not consider such as Abyei complications on who is eligible to vote from the inhabitants of the area? Are they Dinka Ngok and some of Misseiriya clans and not all the tribe which live in the area?
The question that poses itself is has the UNSC the right to interfere to determine who is eligible to vote?
Assuming that the UNSC has a say on that who will dare to conduct the referendum without the acceptance of the Misseiriya?
In this case the UNSC itself will become a threat to the peace and security of the area; because the direct result will be an endless war.
South Sudan officials' illusion is that the UNSC will interfere in oil dispute in their favour, but they didn’t ask themselves is the UNSC able to impose the transit fees on Sudan and through which mechanism or right?
It never happened in its history that the UNSC interfere to force any state to accept the oil transit fees simply because the trade conflicts in none of its mandate.
Another illusion is Heglig, as South Sudan officials thought that inserting the area in their new map will give them the right to attach it to their territories.
It seems that they forgot that the entire international community condemned their attack and illegal occupation to the area which means automatically that the area belongs to the north.
South Sudan rulers are seeking solutions from outside so they intentionally delay resuming the talks waiting for Godot who will never come.
Time is running and three month period will come to an end soon, so it is for the benefit of South Sudan to work hard to finish with the security file and leave the disputed bordering area to the international arbitration.
If the negotiations resumed with the same last futile method then the South will be most affected and seeking the promises will take long with most probable delivering nothing.
By Muawad Mustafa Rashid, 14/05/2012