I do not think that the American Administration was gambling on their credibility when President Barack Obama congratulated the Presidents of the two countries, Sudan and South Sudan for reaching an Oil Agreement. The United States swiftly welcomed the announcement made by African Union (AUHIP) mediation which is led by former South African president Thabo Mbeki. The mediation confirmed that the delegations of Sudan and South Sudan had reached on last Saturday an agreement regarding oil transit fees. That means, there is an agreement and there are fixed numbers for transit fees and other payments related to oil (compensation as an example). If there is no fixed numbers and figures for transit fees and other payments that means the mediation was gambling also on their credibility and their relations with the international community and the United States. All these assumptions are absolutely impossible. The first number that has been leaked to newspapers was 25.8 dollars per barrel, but there were no details for this number, even the source of the number was anonymous.
Is it 9\11 dollar as Pagan Amum, the Head of South Sudanese delegation said in a press conference or it is 25.8 as Khartoum newspapers said on Saturday morning? Is there any other opinion could be a reasonable solution for this puzzle? Also, we have heard 15, 16 dollar as a compromise!
Perhaps it is 25.8 with the compensation scheduled for the coming three years and six months. The compensation is 3.5 billion dollar, and it has been adopted by IMF – International Monetary Fund. Three years and six months equals nearly 1250 days. The number of 3.5 billion dollars means 2.8 million dollars daily, this will be 11 dollar per barrel if the South Sudanese production is 300 thousands barrels (more or less), also we have to take out the local consumption for South Sudan (and may be Uganda, in trade of some goods and commodities!). also, I have heard that the way of paying the compensation will start with 500 million dollar for the coming 4 months which is 14-15 dollars per barrel, so if we add 11 (the fees) to 14-15 (the compensation) the number will reach 25.8 (more or less).
These calculations is just a humble individual trial to solve the puzzle, it may be correct, it may be wrong, but it works for filling the gap of information. At first, Khartoum demanded the payment of 36 dollar per barrel by Juba to export its oil but the Juba offered 70 cent or less than 1 dollar saying this figure is consistent with international norms! For Sudanese citizens, it is better to have the compensation daily (on table) according to international guarantees than to wait for another round of negotiations. It is better to have a slow deal with international guarantees than to wait for another opportunity. Moreover, the oil in South and North will be drained in a few years.